Monsoon rains to be below normal in northwest, normal in rest of India: IMD

Rains, which normally arrive in Kerala round 1 June and retreat through 30 September, are noticed at 96-104% of the long-period reasonable (LPA) this 12 months, with an error margin of 4%. 

East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are anticipated to obtain normal rainfall at 94-106%. However, showers in India’s northwest would possibly be below normal at 92% of LPA all over the June-September season as a result of of El Nino, the India Meteorological Department mentioned.

The climate bureau divides the entire of India in 4 homogeneous areas: northwest, central, south peninsula, and east and northeast India. The IMD defines reasonable, or normal, rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of the 50-year reasonable of 87 cm for the four-month season.

“It is El Nino and sure IOD this 12 months (Indian Ocean Dipole)…we expect the have an effect on of El Nino in central India to be compensated through sure IOD. However, this would possibly not occur in the case of northwest India,” said D. S. Pai, head, Environment Monitoring and Research Centre (EMRC).

El Nino is caused due to unusual warming of water in the eastern equatorial Pacific that has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.

On the other hand, a positive IOD is likely to develop during June-August. Positive IOD refers to the temperature difference between western and eastern Indian Ocean, and is good for southwest monsoon and could result in more precipitation in central India.

Monsoon is crucial for Asia’s third-largest as it delivers nearly 70% of annual rainfall to India, making it important for farming activities. Nearly half of India’s arable land doesn’t have access to irrigation and depends on these rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans.

About 56% of the net cultivated area of the country is rain-fed accounting for 44% of food production, making rains essential for India’s food security.

June is seen drier across most of the country except the southern peninsula and the northeast, IMD said. June accounts for 16-17% of total monsoon rains and is crucial for sowing of kharif crops.

In a relief, however, less than normal rainfall in northwest India is unlikely to have any significant impact on agriculture operations, economists and analysts said. 

“Rice is the crop that is dependent on monsoon for sowing. However, monsoon less than 92% of LPA in northwestern states may not be a major issue as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana are rich in irrigation,” mentioned Madan Sabnavis, leader economist of Bank of Baroda. “Sowing would be deferred in Rajasthan till the monsoon arrives.”

In central India, which grows most of the oilseeds such as soybean, rains are seen normal and thus bode well for sowing operations. 

Rajasthan largely grows coarse cereals and as such can wait for rains, Sabnavis added.

IMD recommends a region-wise crop sowing plan depending on the progress of the monsoon rains. Its extended-range forecast and the short-range forecast also help states plan. IMD will be issuing advisories for farmers and regularly brief the government on the outlook, said Pai.

Pai added that the monsoon current has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands and south Andaman Sea, and conditions are favourable for it to further advance into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the next two days.

IMD has maintained that monsoon will set over Kerala on 4 June, with an error margin of days. Once the monsoon sets in over Kerala, the progress is expected to be fast, Pai said.

“A moderately past due onset and below normal rainfall in June 2023 can be mitigated through the seasonally wholesome reservoir ranges. A normal distribution of rainfall in July 2023 will be crucial to make sure that well timed sowing of kharif plants over maximum of the rustic,” mentioned Aditi Nayar, leader economist and head-Research & Outreach, Icra Ltd.

As in step with Central Water Commission (CWC), India’s 146 reservoirs as of Thursday held a complete of 54.577 billion cubic meters (BCM) of water, which is 5% decrease on 12 months, however 23% upper than the 10-year reasonable.

ICRA expects the GDP enlargement to average to 6% in FY24, with a drawback possibility of up to 50 bps as a result of of the most probably impact El Nino on India’s farm manufacturing, at the same time as frontloaded capex through the federal government and states and a fast execution of infra initiatives may provide an upside.

The IMD mentioned that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stipulations were noticed around the equatorial Pacific with close to to above reasonable sea floor temperature (SST) over maximum of the central and the east equatorial Pacific. There are top chances for the improvement of El Niño stipulations all over the approaching monsoon season, Pai mentioned, attributing the newest forecast from monsoon venture coupled forecasting machine (MMCFS) and different world fashions. 

El Nino stipulations are most probably to proceed till wintry weather 2024, as in step with IMD.

Updated: 26 May 2023, 05:59 PM IST